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- fasophiafrance
- 2016年12月21日
- 讀畢需時 7 分鐘
In July, as the Bush administration began stepping up the pressure on the United Nations to take punitive action against Tehran, it decided to brief Dr. ElBaradei on the contents of the laptop. The session on July 18 on the top floor of the American mission in Vienna was a meeting of former rivals. Before the Iraq war, Dr. ElBaradei had attracted the wrath of the Bush administration by declaring that his agency had found no evidence that Saddam Hussein was reconstituting his nuclear program. And the administration had tried to oust Dr. ElBaradei, an Egyptian, from his post, partly because they found him insufficiently tough on Iran.The briefing primarily revealed computer simulations and studies of various warhead configurations rather than laboratory work or reports on test flights, according to officials in Europe and the United States. But one American official said notations indicated that the Iranians had performed experiments. "This wasn't just some theoretical exercise," he said.
In an interview, Dr. ElBaradei, who won the Nobel Peace Prize in October, declined to discuss the secret briefing.Assessing just how far the Iranians have gone from plan to product is difficult. "It's easy to fall into the trap of thinking that beautiful pictures represent reality," a senior intelligence official said. "But that may not be the case."One major revelation was work done on a sphere of detonators meant to ignite conventional explosives that, in turn, compress the radioactive fuel to start the nuclear chain reaction. The documents also wrestled with how to position a heavy ball -- presumably of nuclear fuel -- inside the warhead to ensure stability and accuracy during the fiery plunge toward a target. And a bomb exploding at a height of about 2,000 feet, as envisioned by the documents, suggests a nuclear weapon, analysts said, since that altitude is unsuitable for conventional, chemical or biological arms.
Q. I am using a Dell Inspiron laptop as my home desktop computer. Can I remove the battery? Is there a danger of a crash if a sudden power failure occurs?A. If you’re using the laptop as your primary computer and keeping it plugged into the electrical outlet all the time, removing the battery is fine. Many companies actually recommend against keeping the battery constantly plugged in, as heat and other factors could affect its internal chemistry and shorten its overall life span.Sudden surges of current from the wall outlet can do bad things to computers, modems and other delicate electronic equipment. To help protect against electrical fluctuations, many people use a surge suppressor — a device that goes between a computer’s power cord and the wall outlet.
If you want to make sure your computer has a backup power system in case the electricity fails, you might want to buy an uninterruptible power supply. Besides protecting your computer from electrical fluctuations, a U.P.S. can also serve as an emergency battery backup when the power goes out, to give you enough time — two to five minutes — to shut the computer down properly. (A detailed explanation is at computer.howstuffworks.com/question28.htm). You can find U.P.S. units for less than $100 on the Web.If you don’t use the laptop battery, charge it to about 40 to 50 percent of its capacity and tuck it away it in a cool, dry place.In November, you’ll be able to buy a new laptop that’s spillproof, rainproof, dustproof and drop-proof. It’s fanless, it’s silent and it weighs 3.2 pounds. One battery charge will power six hours of heavy activity, or 24 hours of reading. The laptop has a built-in video camera, microphone, memory-card slot, graphics tablet, game-pad controllers and a screen that rotates into a tablet configuration.
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The computer, if you hadn’t already guessed, is the fabled “$100 laptop” that’s been igniting hype and controversy for three years. It’s an effort by One Laptop Per Child (laptop.org) to develop a very low-cost, high-potential, extremely rugged computer for the two billion educationally underserved children in poor countries.The concept: if a machine is designed smartly enough, without the bloat of standard laptops, and sold in large enough quantities, the price can be brought way, way down. Maybe not down to $100, as O.L.P.C. originally hoped, but low enough for developing countries to afford millions of them — one per child.The laptop is now called the XO, because if you turn the logo 90 degrees, it looks like a child.
After more than a year of analysis, questions remain about the trove's authenticity. "Even with the best intelligence, you always ask yourself, 'Was this prepared for my eyes?' " one American official said. Several intelligence experts said that a sophisticated Western spy agency could, in theory, have produced the contents of the laptop. But American officials insisted there was no evidence of such fraud.Gary Samore, the head of nonproliferation at the National Security Council in the Clinton administration, who recently directed a report on Iran that drew on interviews with government officials in many nations, said, "The most convincing evidence that the material is genuine is that the technical work is so detailed that it would be difficult to fabricate."
In August and September, as the United States was preparing for a showdown vote at the International Atomic Energy Agency on whether to recommend action by the United Nations Security Council against Iran, the Bush administration stepped up its campaign.The United States rarely shares raw intelligence outside a small circle of close allies. But it decided to disseminate a shortened version of the secret warhead briefing. Mr. Joseph and his colleagues presented it to the president of Ghana and to officials from Argentina, Sri Lanka, Tunisia and Nigeria, among other nations.But the administration felt uncomfortable sharing any classified intelligence with another ring of countries. For them, it developed the equivalent of the white paper on Iraq that Britain and the United States published before the Iraq war. The 43-page unclassified briefing includes no reference to the warhead documents, but uses commercial satellite photos and economic analysis to argue that Iran has no need for nuclear power and has long hidden its true ambitions.
Analysts from the Los Alamos National Laboratory and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory wrote the briefing paper for the State Department, which distributed it widely. In graphic detail, the paper offers a tour of the previously hidden sites, saying, for instance, that a "dummy" building at the centrifuge plant in Natanz hides a secret entrance ramp to an underground factory.The briefing asserted that Iran did not have enough proven uranium reserves to fuel its nuclear power program beyond 2010. But it does have enough uranium, the report added, "to give Iran a significant number of nuclear weapons."The briefing landed with something of a thud. Some officials found its arguments superficial and inconclusive. "Yeah, so what?" said one European expert who heard the briefing. "How do you know what you're shown on a slide is true given past experience?"
Even so, the American campaign helped produce a consensus among International Atomic Energy Agency board members, although a fragile one. On Sept. 24, the board passed the resolution against Iran by a vote of 22 to 1, with 12 countries abstaining, including China and Russia.It cited Iran for "a long history of concealment and deception" and repeated failure to live up to its obligations under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which it signed in 1970. The resolution said Iran's failings had set it up for consideration by the Security Council for possible punishment with economic penalties, though it left the timing of the referral to a future meeting.Manouchehr Mottaki, Iran's foreign minister, denounced the resolution as "illegal and illogical" and the result of a "planned scenario determined by the United States."
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On Thanksgiving, Nov. 24, the board of the international atomic agency plans to meet again to confront the Iranian nuclear question -- and decide whether to take the next step and send the issue to the Security Council.The Bush administration is confident in its evidence. "There is not a single country we deal with that does not believe Iran is seeking a nuclear weapon," said Mr. Burns, the under secretary of state.The Iranians have taken steps to forestall any penalties. After months of delays, they have allowed inspectors into a secret military site, shared more information about the history of their program, and signaled a willingness to reopen negotiations, even while vowing to continue turning raw uranium into a gas that can be enriched. Those steps may convince some atomic agency board members. And at least two countries rotating onto the board for the next meeting -- Cuba and Syria -- are almost certain to defy Washington. (In September, only Venezuela voted with Tehran.)
Given those politics, the fresh intelligence that the United States says proves Iran's true intentions may not be pivotal in the long confrontation with Tehran. One reason is that the United States has so far refused to declassify the warhead information, making it impossible to seek a detailed explanation from the Iranians.Dr. ElBaradei said his agency was bound to "follow due process, which means I need to establish the veracity, consistency and authenticity of any intelligence, and share it with the country of concern." In this case, he added, "That has not happened."
European nations and the international atomic agency are now working out details of a new proposal that offers Tehran the chance to conduct very limited nuclear activities in Iran, but move any enrichment of uranium to Russia -- part of the effort to keep the country from obtaining the nuclear fuel that could go atop the Shahab missile.Some European diplomats are concerned that confronting the Iranians with strong evidence of the warhead studies could cause Tehran to abandon negotiations with the West, expel international inspectors and move forward with its plans, whatever they may be."It's a card that will explode the system in place, so the question becomes when and how you play it," a senior European diplomat said. "If there is information that can serve to make progress with the Iranians, without blowing up the system, that's better."
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